“…it’s far from certain that social networking will prove as effective as more traditional fundraising methods such as direct mail, telephone solicitation and even e-mails to past donors,” that’s according to an Associated Press article that appeared back in April.

The Facebook users among you know that the “L’il Green Patch” game was hard to avoid for a few months. The AP writer uncovered that it has raised more than $160,000 for The Nature Conservancy. But the author believes this may be an exception rather than the rule. The author quoted one Facebook user talking about L’il Green Patch and similar efforts: “Sometimes I pay attention to them, but with a lot of them I’m just clicking ‘Ignore, Ignore, Ignore.’”

There’s nothing unique to online social networks about that! Under the best of circumstances, more than 95% of traditional fundraising letters end up in the trash. And we all ignore hundreds or thousands of advertisements we encounter every day. Here’s a passage worth noting:

Despite being among the more lucrative Facebook applications, (Lil) Green Patch accounts for less than 3 percent of The Nature Conservancy’s online fundraising — which itself generates just 10 percent of all individual donations to the group

This basically corroborates my own observations and experience. For most organizations, online fundraising is still a pretty small slice of their pie — but it’s the piece that’s either growing or holding steady through the recession. Membership fundraising letters are producing less and less.

The dilemma for the nonprofit sector — can they grow their online supporter base fast enough to offset the inevitable declines in traditional membership? I’m working with a number of orgs that are trying… so stay tuned.

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