Liar, Liar, Paddles on Fire!
May 11th, 2009 | 
Author: Using environmental polls and surveys to evaluate the attitudes, language, and behaviors of the citizens you work with is a very smart thing to do, and it gets cheaper and easier all the time. But like any form of research, there are shortcomings. Here’s one: Sometimes people lie to pollsters.
I recently played the Ipsos Poll Predictor game, and missed a question about canoe paddling skills by a MILE.
I knew 33% was higher than the actual number of men who can truly paddle a canoe when I guessed it, but I seem to have seriously underestimated the misreporting factor. According to the Active Outdoor Recreation Economy study, published in 2008, less than 10% of the population (300 million of us) actually paddle with any frequency:
Conventional wisdom among us poll watchers is that the survey participants aren’t really lying to the pollsters per se — they’re lying to themselves. The answers we get are wishful thinking. The Ipsos poll result tells us that a lot of men wish they knew how to paddle a canoe.
So if environmental surveys and polls are often inaccurate about self-reported behavior, why do them? Because they are still WAY MORE ACCURATE than you just guessing, that’s why.
Want to play the poll predictor game? Want to get an insiders perspective on how polls and surveys work? Click the banner below to join the Ipsos panel. Disclosure: They will pay me $3 if you do.
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I also wonder if it’s the wording of the question that caused the skewed results. A person may think they know conceptually how to paddle a canoe, but that doesn’t mean they’ve ever been in a canoe.
Like all polling questions, it really depends on what you want to accomplish.
If you want to know who may actually be canoeing this weekend, this is a lousy question. If you want to know how big a pool of labor you have to draw on if you want to start a beaver trapping company, this is a good question.
Are you interested in attitude or activity? The thought of being able to go canoeing or camping can be a motivator, even to those who never actually do. Never loose sight of the power of people’s aspirations to motivate them and provide joy, even if they are not in a position to realize those aspirations any time in the near future.